Cranberry, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS61 KBGM 310624
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
124 AM EST Tue Dec 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a quiet and mild day, a batch of rain will come tonight
as low pressure passes. This will introduce cooler air on New
Years Day, with mixed rain and snow showers. A cold pattern
will then take shape with heavy lake effect snow in parts of
Central New York Wednesday night through much of the weekend,
and occasional snow showers as far south as the Twin Tiers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
125 AM Update...
Our final day of the year will be quiet and mild, but then low
pressure will bring in a batch of rain tonight.

Spotty rain and wet snow showers is just letting go of northern
Oneida County as surface ridging builds into the region. This
temporary high pressure will yield quiet and mild conditions
today, with stratocumulus gradually breaking up only to be
replaced by incoming thickening high clouds ahead of approaching
low pressure. Highs will be in the 40s; a few spots towards the
Wyoming Valley could even hit 50.

Potent negatively-tilted shortwave will pivot over the region
tonight, just as the surface high tracks through. Models are
even indicating a touch of instability aloft along the vorticity
lobe, and thus in addition to a definitely wave of rain showers there
could even be an embedded rumble of thunder towards the Wyoming
Valley-Poconos-Catskills. Forecast rain amounts range from a
quarter to half inch for most locations, but some higher terrain
areas east of I-81 could get closer to three quarters of an
inch. This will not be enough to cause flooding issues, though
certainly some typical ponding on roads can be anticipated
during the heaviest portion of the showers in the few hours on
either side of the New Year. With the mild regime holding
tonight, temperatures will stay above freezing; in the mid 30s
to lower 40s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

A low situated just off the coast of Long Island will continuing
moving northeast through the rest of the week. Leftover snowfall
will result, and with the upper level flow becoming west-
northwesterly, a prolonged lake effect snowfall event will
unfold. Through Wednesday evening, wrap-around moisture will
bring chances for snowfall across all areas, and will taper off
except for the development of lake effect snow for Oneida-
Onondaga-Madison-Cayuga counties.

Overnight Thursday, colder 700 mb temperatures start to filter
in, leading to increased lift over northern Central NY, and
intensification of lake effect. As of right now, with current
trends, snow rates are expected to be their highest between
early Thursday morning and early Thursday afternoon, mainly and
especially for the Syracuse Metro area. Confidence is medium in
timing, especially since the newest model runs of the Canadian
are now showing a more defined northwest flow to allow the
Syracuse area to receive more snowfall.

By Thursday late afternoon, the aforementioned stacked low will
have migrated farther north, shifting flow more westerly,
resulting in lake effect orientation to be more westerly, and
providing snowfall over Oneida County. The band will likely
maintain its position until a shortwave trough moves eastward
south of the area and develops into a coastal low, and move up
the East Coast Friday night. As it does, flow will switch back
to northwesterly heading into the early weekend in the long term
period.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Oneida-Onondaga-
Madison-Cayuga counties starting Wednesday afternoon through
Sunday afternoon for heavy lake effect snowfall possible, and
total snow accumulations of greater than 7 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update...

Heading into the weekend, there is medium to high confidence
that lake effect for northern portions of Central NY will
continue through Saturday. Confidence is low regarding the
strength and any additional amounts of the bands. With current
trends, from Saturday evening onward, lake effect will begin to
taper off as ridging begins to build over the area. We`ll
continue to monitor conditions for lake effect and when it will
finally end.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z Update...
Last vestiges of higher end MVFR, around 3000 feet, will still
hang around KRME up to around dawn, otherwise VFR for all
terminals through the coming daytime period courtesy of brief
ridge of high pressure. Main issues will be on the other side of
the TAF period, as low pressure quickly advances from the
Midwest to our region this evening. A wave of rain and
deteriorating restrictions will develop from southwest to
northeast between 00Z-06Z Wednesday. The enhanced southeasterly
flow just off the surface ahead of it will also initiate
marginal low level wind shear conditions for at least KAVP-
KBGM; LLWS may also be added to other terminals if confidence
increases.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Light rain showers and ceiling restrictions; rain
eventually changing to snow showers including associated
visibility restrictions late Wednesday through Wednesday night,
especially KSYR-KRME. Improving conditions with time for other
terminals, though with stiff westerly winds areawide; peak
gusts 20-30 knots by Wednesday night.

Thursday into Saturday...Cold pattern with lake effect snow
showers and associated restrictions at Central NY terminals,
especially at SYR-RME where snow may be heavy at times.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday
     afternoon for NYZ009-017-018-036-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MDP